E2C2 LLC

E2C2 LLC

energy / environment strategies

E2C2 LLC RSS Feed
 
 
 
 

Archive for Uncategorized

the retail end of the smart grid; consumers first!

EnViz Residential Demand Response

The smart grid has been promoted as key to this country’s energy future; an intelligent network tying together power production, transmission, distribution and consumption; reacting in real time, matching supply and demand. At the residential, “retail” end of the smart grid, conventional marketing wisdom has it that a utility installed smart meter will facilitate home energy management as well as responding to system wide peaks through voluntary curtailments, known as Demand Response DR).

Under this rubric, using the smart meter, the utility, with the consumer’s permission, will be able to curtail non essential electrical loads as needed, benefitting the customer with less electric consumption and a smaller electric bill while helping the utility by reducing the need to construct expensive new peak generating capacity or to purchase power off the grid at costly peak rates. Despite considerable corporate marketing efforts and some positive publicity, smart meters have nevertheless experienced consumer resistance, due in part to skepticism of utility motives, ratepayer equity issues, privacy concerns and also what may be a libertarian streak among homeowners who don’t like the idea of a utility telling them when they can do their laundry. Furthermore, the build out of smart meter enabled service areas will at best, take as much as a decade, and even then likely leave out sizeable sectors of residential consumers.

Given this situation, should consumers and other stakeholders with an interest in DR simply bide their time until the smart meter and its associated home management system arrive? Not necessarily. There are other promising routes to residential energy efficiency and demand management. Electric utilities might wish otherwise, but today with multiple communication and control techniques now available, residential electric energy management systems aren’t restricted to pathways running exclusively through the electric meter, such as the smart meter systems described.

We believe DR makes sense, but it also has to put consumers, not the utility, foremost. As an alternative to utility directed demand response, we envision a consumer driven home energy management system. Based on increasingly popular and proven wireless communication protocols, cheap sensors and microcontrollers, such a system could connect and control key residential loads without resort to communications via the electric meter and the utility. Every residential electric consumer in the country can benefit. E2C2 LLC is developing such a solution, known as EnViz. The diagram explains it.

will “seeing” our travel and transactions make us smarter consumers and commuters?

travel and transaction week map

I chatted with a computer scientist colleague last week about an open transaction platform he’d like to build that would bypass the major vendors and give consumers and small merchants alike access to the type of data retail giants now use to sell us even more stuff. One of the benefits of this open platform, among others, would be that we, as consumers, could see current records of our transactions on our handhelds by category. Moreover, I have been thinking, what if we could also place these transactions in geographic space. Would a picture of our goings and purchases make us smarter consumers, and more energy conscious, perhaps. I’ve recently read Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein’s book, Nudge http://nudges.org/, and have been thinking how some of the precepts of behavioral economics could be applied to more thoughtful energy use.

As a test of the hypothesis that “seeing” a record of transactions and travels might make me more thoughtful about them I logged my commerce and movements here in Washington, DC for part of this past week and built the 3D model of them that you see at left. I think this tells quite a lot about me - perhaps more than I might want a vendor to know. But  it also shows me I could be more considered in my use of transportation. For example, a couple of my car trips could have been accomplished using the subway and walking – but I wanted to save time; the age old conundrum involving time and or money.

weatherviz

The old line goes “Everybody complains about the weather but no one does anything about it.” We’re doing something about this state of affairs. Our art and technology project, called weatherviz, captures and makes visible a small slice of the river of meteorological data that surrounds us.  It is an automated system that downloads weather information from the Internet and uses robotics to drive a large kinetic sculpture. It also animates a constantly – changing computer visualization. The whole production will ultimately be viewable over the Internet.

weatherviz montage

using weather imagery to drive sculpture and computer animation

Weatherviz extends meteorilogical imagery seen on TV and the Internet. It takes weather data and expresses it as movement in a kinetic sculpture.  Weatherviz sculpture and media animations play back interpretations of very recent weather events from a selection of 150 locations monitored by NOAA’s National Weather Service in the territorial United States. 

Weatheviz  captures and animates four regularly sampled meteorological factors for each geographic locale;  temperature, wind, precipitation and total weather energy. NOAA weather stations span nearly half the globe: west to east, from Guam, in the Pacific, to St. Thomas, Virgin Islands; north to south, from Barrow, Alaska  to San Juan, Puerto Rico.  

Demonstrations are slated for later this Summer in Seattle and during the Fall in Washington, DC. When visitors view the outdoor weatherviz sculpture, an electronic crawl accompanying it will identify the weather station and sampling date. Figuring out which components of the sculpture and data visualization match each other for a weather event will be part of the fun and mystery of the installation.

Stay tuned for more weatherviz info as the project reaches the demonstration stage.

the cost of the hoffmeister kink

Does styling matter? The car crazed, including me, can’t have missed a styling trend of the past several years where the bottom line of the rear quarter window in a sedan, coupe, or crossover swoops upward, rather than being more or less parallel with the rest of the side window. This styling device, called a Hoffmeister kink, after its German originator, is most associated with former BMW styling chief Chris Bangle, who introduced it in some BMW models in the early 2000’s.

The Hoffmeister kink, as far as I can tell ,has no function. Instead it just adds an expressionistic flourish to the rear quarter of the vehicle, kind of like tail fins did 50 years ago. More importantly it also magnifies a blind spot in the vehicle by increasing the sheet metal and reducing the glass area. Driving a rented Nissan Murano recently, which featured a massive kink in the rear quarter and almost no rear vision, I started wondering just how many accidents occur because of this styling quirk. I don’t know if  the insurance industry has studied this. Admittedly, a passenger side mirror properly adjusted can eliminate much of the blind spot. But wouldn’t it be easier to simply glance in the rear view mirror to check for traffic without the obstruction imposed by the sheetmetal?

I have generally admired Bangle’s expressionistic approach to vehicle design but the Hoffmeister is not one of his greatest contributions. The shame is that so many other auto makers jumped on the styling bandwagon and even though BMW has pretty much dispensed with this styling touch, it lives on in Mazda, Nissan, Lexus and others, making driving on congested highways all the more difficult. I’m an advocate of good design and this is a reminder that mere styling doesn’t always make the grade.

solar: the novel

How often do novels portray middle aged scientists and technologists? Moreover, those in the thrall of  solar energy? Just finished Ian McEwan’s novel, Solar. Michael Beard, the protagonist, is a Nobel winning physicist with a messy personal life and is on the downside of his career.  McEwan paints a comic portrait of a formerly brilliant, still self absorbed, immature and not very honest man, facing old age. The story delivers pot shots at political correctness in academe and  the bureaucratic finagling endemic in the government grants game. In what other work of fiction would NREL (the National Renewable Energy Lab) be featured? Not a great novel, but entertaining for its insights on the climate/renewables issue and the compulsions of middle age.

size matters

A trip yesterday to the Washington International Auto Show got me to thinking about size. In the case of cars, as with housing, green doesn’t only mean new technologies, it also means smaller. From yesterday’s product scan at the show, Ford appears to be the only American manufacturer with an exciting small car in its portfolio. The Fiesta, due on showroom floors this spring, is stylish, well put together, good handling and peppy. It promises about 40 mpg with a high efficiency gas engine – no hybrid technology required. A turbocharged version, due a bit later, will offer even better performance with little or no mileage penalty.  General Motors doesn’t have much to counter the Fiesta; its Chevy Aveo looks down market and the Fiat/Chrysler 500, which is very cute but tiny, won’t be on sale for a couple of years. Ford’s main competition in the small, quality – but – not – luxury car segment will be Japan and VW.

 

 

This brings up the absurd situation in the American auto market with respect to vehicle size and efficiency.  Conventional marketing wisdom asserts that Americans need big cars because it’s a big country.  And, because big cars weigh more, they need bigger and more fuel thirsty engines.  There’s also the mythical, aspirational aspect of this argument: that Americans demand big, powerful, cars; because – well, they can. However, it’s long been known that the average vehicle trip in America is about 7 miles and that vehicle occupancy is generally not much more than one; the driver.  This suggests a car something less massive than a crew cab pickup or a 8 passenger SUV.  

In round numbers, the large truck/SUV gets about 20 mpg or less while the aforementioned Fiesta gets about 40 mpg, or twice the mileage without resorting to any hybrid or electric technology.  The automakers, American ones especially, have asserted that the public wants big cars and they are simply meeting that demand. However, large vehicles are also more profitable than small ones, providing the manufacturers incentives to sell them.  Speaking of large vehicles the truck and large SUV areas at the auto show were dead zones – opposed to 2 or 3 years ago.

In the “have your cake and eat it too” vein, manufacturers have countered the large vehicle efficiency downside by producing high performance cars with somewhat better fuel economy achieved by advanced technology. Examples are Lexus hybrids and Mercedes Blue Tec diesel models. But, as impressive as the performance and technology of these vehicles are they still beg the question about going to all this trouble when smaller, simpler vehicles will deliver approximately the same performance, get better mileage and cost a lot less? The motivation is manufacturers believe there is still a strong market for big luxury vehicles which improve the bottom line.

However, recent marketing research by McKinsey has suggested that Americans have not only changed their behavior with respect to expensive goods out of economic necessity; they are actually satisfied with lower priced, less premium offerings and unlikely to revert to previous behavior. In the case of automobiles, I hope this means a lot more cars like the Fiesta. Having said this, hybrid and electric vehicle technologies are necessary and inevitable, but in the meantime large energy savings are available by simply going a little smaller.

the 3 “P’s”- Marketing Cleantech

The question asked by everybody, including greentech types, is what it takes to sell products and services in this poor economy? We suggest for greentech the answer is; most of the same factors that have always made products attractive to consumers and businesses, but now with even more focus. We call these factors the three P’s: price, performance and don’t underestimate panache.

 

 

3 P's facilitate green product introduction - click to enlarge

3 P's facilitate green product introduction - click to enlarge

 

Many of you familiar with marketing know the typical “S” shaped curve describing the penetration of new products in the marketplace. When a product is introduced there is typically a period of time where it experiences modest sales. This is the relatively flat, left “tail” of the “S” as people learn about the product and a few bold, early adopters them try it out. Then, if the product appeals for various reasons based on performance, price or the great intangible, panache (the fun, cool, or buzz factor), sales begin take off among progressive consumers, moving along a steeper portion of the curve.

 

Finally, if the product is popular and achieves mass market status, it hits the steepest section of the curve. Ultimately, sales flatten as most people who might be in the market for the product or service have now bought it, and replacement sales and conservative purchasers dominate.

 

While most greentech firms are undoubtedly pushing price and performance factors today we’re suggesting they also study the entertainment and luxury markets carefully and try to add as much panache to their offerings as possible, without compromising the other two “P’s.”

 

Three of our favorite examples of green marketing panache are ZipCar, GreenBox, and TerraPass. Each of these takes what’s essentially a fairly prosaic but environmentally desirable service and turns it into something more fun. ZipCar recasts short term auto rental and creates a community of “Zipsters” driving cute, energy efficient vehicles around metropolitan areas. GreenBox takes home energy monitoring (yawn!) and turns it into an engaging online activity with a community of fellow energy savers. TerraPass promotes purchasing carbon offsets as not only responsible but an interesting endeavor. 

 

Tell me about your favorite green product or service that delivers the “3 P’s.” We need to make our offerings as attractive to consumers as possible.

solar pv promises green collar jobs for an economy that’s hurting

During this dark time of year and with the gloomy economy it’s hard to think about a bright future for photovoltaic power. However, the fact remains that the sun is the most abundant energy source available and we will need to rely on it much more if we are to address global warming successfully. 

 

You may have heard that renewable energy represents a small fraction – about 7% – of the national energy budget. And of that 7% renewable, solar energy comprises only about 1%, as the chart from the U.S. Energy Information Agency below illustrates.

 

 

Thus, if solar energy is going to become a significant contributor, delivering for example 5-10% of the total national electrical energy budget by 2030, this country must engage in a massive scale up over the next 20 years. It’s going to take some hard work and logistical magic to make sure the nation’s rooftops are supplied with solar panels, but this is what America is good at. Assuming we need solar to supply a minimum 5% of the total electrical budget, here’s some sample numbers for the residential market alone:

  • We decide we want 25% of all PV capacity installed on residential rooftops, with the balance split between commercial buildings and industrial scale solar “farms.” 
  • We have about 75 million detached and semi detached homes in the country now and might expect to have about 100 million by 2030.
  • The EIA expects we will have an annual electrical demand of about 4,700 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) by 2030. If we want 25% of 5% – or 1.25% – of this demand supplied from residential rooftops then we will need to deploy about 20 million installations that each produce an average of 3,000 kWh per year. This translates into about 1 million new installations per year, or PV on 1 in every 5 American homes! Assuming 250 working days per year that’s 4,000 new residential installations nationwide every day for 20 years.
  • The labor impacts of this are exciting. If it takes 2 installers 2 days for a typical residential system, this translates into the equivalent of 16,000 full time jobs in residential solar installations alone, not taking into additional jobs in manufacturing, administration and supply chain. The labor outlooks for commercial and industrial solar installations are even more encouraging.

 

In summary, the long term prospects are encouraging, but the short term may be bumpy for the solar industry. Among other issues, prices for solar equipment must decline, to garner widespread public uptake. But manufacturers and others in the supply chain must be able to pocket profits, which, in the near term, may be flat or worse in an oversupplied market and slowed economy. Public policy will also need to encourage solar. However, the policy challenge may be more straightforward than than ever, given President Elect Obama’s newly selected science and technology appointments. They include Nobel Laureate Steve Chu and global climate and energy expert John Holdren, who bring the new Administration outstanding credentials and commitment to the renewable energy imperative. We stay tuned to how Congress and the new President ultimately craft the stimulus package and hope that solar plays an important part.

 

 

 

 

 

your toaster on the Internet; the coming smart grid

Smart energy is not simply the renewable kind; it’s also energy saved through efficiency. Put another way, saving a kilowatt through efficiency is the same as generating one at an existing or new power plant. In fact, it’s usually better, since efficiency is often cheaper than building new capacity or generating power at more expensive peak rates.

 

Energy efficiency encompasses a host of technologies. In the electric power field it includes better materials and construction, lighting, appliances and machinery for homes, businesses and factories. But it also includes more efficient transmission, distribution and management of the power we already have. One approach getting frequent attention is the Smart Grid. This is a new way of thinking about the national network of plants, wires, software and myriad electrical devices in operation at any one time. It changes the old, single direction paradigm of devices pulling power from the electrical grid into a real time conversation among devices and power infrastructure. This conversation will be particularly important since more power is being generated at distributed locations such as wind farms, and residential and commercial rooftops, equipped with solar panels, not just at conventional centralized power plants.

 

A smart grid delivers electricity from suppliers to consumers using digital technology to save energy and cost. This modernized electricity network should save energy, promote greater energy independence and contribute to the slowing of global warming. There are a lot of pieces to the smart grid puzzle, but we’ll focus on what the consumer might expect to see in a few years. I was actually kidding about your toaster on the Internet – you want it toasty – now, but several typical household appliances and other pieces of equipment may play important roles in the smart grid.

 

As an example, your refrigerator doesn’t need to run all the time to keep your food at appropriate temperature in the freezer and cooler compartments. Right now, it’s probably set too low,causing needless power consumption. In a smart grid home, you might set your refrigerator to an appropriate temperature and a series of sensors and communication protocols would automatically monitor and manage power to it. Your air conditioning system, another large power user, may also be set wrong, causing needless cooling of your home when unoccupied. Saving a few kilowatt hours this way, spread across hundreds of millions of homes and businesses really adds up.

 

ZigBee is an open standard communications protocol that will allow wireless control devices in a home or office to facilitate such appliance monitoring and control. While similar in some respects to Bluetooth, it is simpler and cheaper to implement, facilitating its cheap introduction into a host of household devices. When connected with a hub and smart meter an appliance like a refrigerator can be kept at appropriate temperature while saving unnecessary power consumption. This saves you money and gives the utility freedom to dispatch the power you don’t need elsewhere. Everybody wins with this approach.

 

The smart grid embraces all scales of our electrical infrastructure; from the national power grid to local distribution lines, to individual meters and equipment in homes and businesses. Pilot smart grid programs are currently underway in Austin, Texas and Boulder, Colorado. Among companies involved with the Smart Grid are software providers like Gridpoint www.gridpoint.com, Greenbox http://www.getgreenbox.com/ and a growing number of ZigBee enabled device manufacturers.

 

 

 

 

 

tech trends and green economy

We generally focus on green technologies and practices in the building and transportation industries. However, this edition broadens that reach. Last week’s Emerging Technologies 2008 (Emtech 08) conference, sponsored by Technology Review  at MIT, showcased recent developments across a wide technology spectrum.
 
Emtech demonstrated that innovation will proceed despite distress on Wall Street and general economic slow down. Globally oriented entrepreneurs are betting that billions of consumers, particularly in the developing world, will continue to need better and more affordable housing, transportation, communication, education, healthcare and other services.
 
Featured at Emtech 08 were prominent tech entrepreneurs and developers, scientists and engineers. They work in biotech, nanoscience, business, transportation, energy, and of course, information industries. Since green building and transportation technologies, our particular interests, interconnect with virtually all other technologies, We think it’s worth trying to share and make – a little – sense of what we heard.

Investing in Green Tech
Uber venture capitalist and tech entrepreneur Vinod Khosla outlined the thinking behind his recent venture investments, which prominently feature various renewable energy technologies. His criteria for investing in a new venture, more fully described on his website, are:

  • Technology that achieves unsubsidized competitiveness
  • Technology that scales – if it isn’t cheaper it doesn’t scale
  • Manageable startup costs & short innovation cycles
  • Declining cost with scale – trajectory matters

Vinod had also been reading The Black Swan , Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s ruminations on predicatability and change. Put another way, Taleb argues that we believe we inhabit a world of more certainty than we actually do. Black swans are hugely impactful, yet highly improbably events or developments that are almost impossible to predict. They are game changers; political events like 9/11, technical developments like the Internet and Google that transform the landscape. Of course, as a venture capitalist, Vinod Khosla would like to fund more initiatives that become black swans. But given their improbability and unpredictability perhaps all he can do is increase the number of opportunities for creating them.  For his full Emtech presentation follow this link

 
Growing Asian Markets  
Though not an explicit theme at the conference, it’s becoming clear that several billion nascent consumers entering the mainstream market from Asia will have a huge impact on the global economy and technology. As more global households reach middle class status they will aspire to middle class lifestyles. Estimates suggest there could be 50 million plus households reaching this level in India and thus in the market for something like Tata’s $2500 Nano microcar, introduced last January. 

Furthermore, Sycamore Networks founder, philanthropist and investor Desh Deshpande, is positioning a new cell phone service in India to be delivered at about $6 month, reaching hundreds of millions of people.
 
Unlike the developed world, where government and/or consumers have been asked to a pay premium for sustainable technology such as solar photovoltaic power and hybrid vehicles, green tech will have to compete on price in developing world. This is not necessarily a bad thing, because the huge potential of this market will drive innovation and likely bring green technology costs down for everybody in both the developing and developed world. 
 
Mobile Future
Some of you may know that Google rolled out its open source mobile phone system last week, with T Mobile as its partner. The first Google powered handset, the G1 handset offers Apple iPhone – like functionality plus a QWERTY keyboard at an affordable price, and invites developers to create applications for the new open platform operating system. Google, as a player in the mobile business, likely sends shivers down the spines of competitors. Speaking of which, Microsoft presented its vision of mobile, context sensitive, visual computing. Redmond’s Craig Mundie demonstrated a number of visually oriented applications, allowing a future user to interact and navigate the world via high powered mobile devices populated with rich photographic representations of the environment.
 
Energy Storage
Virtually every device will require better power storage. All mobile electronic handsets use batteries and everything from a power tool to an electric vehicle to a solar panel will benefit from a more powerful, reliable, and cheaper energy storage source.
 
Right now, for example, there is an unsubsidized cost premium of several thousand dollars between an EV or hybrid and a comparable fossil fuel vehicle. Depending on the actual technology, much of this cost premium is devoted to batteries. Firms like A123 Systems have been applying proprietary nanotechnology to produce such batteries for companies like power tool manufacturer Black and Decker and General Motors’ Chevy Volt electric vehicle. Tesla’s roadster doesn’t presently employ the A123 battery but they, too are in search of considerably cheaper, more powerful energy storage, which will be the black swan for the transportation industry.
 
More Mashups
Named originally after the sampling and DJ phenomena in the music world, mashups are eclectic and sometimes arbitrary seeming assemblages of data delivered to one place, such as a website or other user interface. More and more online experience derives from such multiple media feeds. The days of static web pages served by one source are about over. People want to read news, scan video and audio; they want to read blogs and chat with friends, all from the same interface. Drupal www.drupal.org is an open source framework for content management that facilitates this. Disparate organizations such as Harvard and Sony use Drupal to organize and deliver their web content.
 
 
Social Networks
I’m probably too old to appreciate the full impact of online social networking but it’s exploded, and not just through Facebook and MySpace and their slightly more grown up cousin LinkedIn . More and more organizations, including political campaigns, employ social networks. Almost any initiative, project, or venture can benefit from a collaborative online network. Ning makes it possible to set up your own  private or public social network with a few clicks – and for free.
 
Trends to Follow
With the black swan and Wall Street in mind, who can predict what technologies or events are going to be game changers? Therefore, short of prognostications, what developments might interest many of this newsletter’s readers in design professions.

Takeaways from the Emtech 08 conference:

  • Try to join the global market. Consider partnerships or other ways to reach clients and customers in rapidly growing Asian markets particularly.
  • Take advantage of the growth of mobile technologies and social networking from the standpoints of your own marketing efforts and in terms of the services and/or products you offer.
  • If you’re an architect or designer, think about how users are changing their interactions with each other and with the physical environment using mobile devices and social networks.
  • If you’re an interactive designer make your client’s websites handset browser friendly and build more social interactivity into them.
  • If you’re engineering electric vehicles, buildings or artifacts make sure their systems interact with handheld devices for control and accounting purposes such as tracking carbon credits.

Finally, as a designer get comfortable with mashups. Think about creating frameworks, not just inviolate layouts. In the physical world, mashups suggest matrices for plugin components, such as impromptu work spaces of different sorts. In the information world mashups need platforms, desirably open source, allowing for various feeds of disparate media and many voices

mission

We develop and market energy efficiency strategies and technologies. We focus on the building and transportation sectors, which account for more than two thirds of the energy budget.

contents