We generally focus on green technologies and practices in the building and transportation industries. However, this edition broadens that reach. Last week’s Emerging Technologies 2008 (Emtech 08) conference, sponsored by Technology Review at MIT, showcased recent developments across a wide technology spectrum.
Emtech demonstrated that innovation will proceed despite distress on Wall Street and general economic slow down. Globally oriented entrepreneurs are betting that billions of consumers, particularly in the developing world, will continue to need better and more affordable housing, transportation, communication, education, healthcare and other services.
Featured at Emtech 08 were prominent tech entrepreneurs and developers, scientists and engineers. They work in biotech, nanoscience, business, transportation, energy, and of course, information industries. Since green building and transportation technologies, our particular interests, interconnect with virtually all other technologies, We think it’s worth trying to share and make – a little – sense of what we heard.
Investing in Green Tech
Uber venture capitalist and tech entrepreneur Vinod Khosla outlined the thinking behind his recent venture investments, which prominently feature various renewable energy technologies. His criteria for investing in a new venture, more fully described on his website, are:
- Technology that achieves unsubsidized competitiveness
- Technology that scales – if it isn’t cheaper it doesn’t scale
- Manageable startup costs & short innovation cycles
- Declining cost with scale – trajectory matters
Vinod had also been reading The Black Swan , Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s ruminations on predicatability and change. Put another way, Taleb argues that we believe we inhabit a world of more certainty than we actually do. Black swans are hugely impactful, yet highly improbably events or developments that are almost impossible to predict. They are game changers; political events like 9/11, technical developments like the Internet and Google that transform the landscape. Of course, as a venture capitalist, Vinod Khosla would like to fund more initiatives that become black swans. But given their improbability and unpredictability perhaps all he can do is increase the number of opportunities for creating them. For his full Emtech presentation follow this link
Growing Asian Markets
Though not an explicit theme at the conference, it’s becoming clear that several billion nascent consumers entering the mainstream market from Asia will have a huge impact on the global economy and technology. As more global households reach middle class status they will aspire to middle class lifestyles. Estimates suggest there could be 50 million plus households reaching this level in India and thus in the market for something like Tata’s $2500 Nano microcar, introduced last January.
Furthermore, Sycamore Networks founder, philanthropist and investor Desh Deshpande, is positioning a new cell phone service in India to be delivered at about $6 month, reaching hundreds of millions of people.
Unlike the developed world, where government and/or consumers have been asked to a pay premium for sustainable technology such as solar photovoltaic power and hybrid vehicles, green tech will have to compete on price in developing world. This is not necessarily a bad thing, because the huge potential of this market will drive innovation and likely bring green technology costs down for everybody in both the developing and developed world.
Mobile Future
Some of you may know that Google rolled out its open source mobile phone system last week, with T Mobile as its partner. The first Google powered handset, the G1 handset offers Apple iPhone – like functionality plus a QWERTY keyboard at an affordable price, and invites developers to create applications for the new open platform operating system. Google, as a player in the mobile business, likely sends shivers down the spines of competitors. Speaking of which, Microsoft presented its vision of mobile, context sensitive, visual computing. Redmond’s Craig Mundie demonstrated a number of visually oriented applications, allowing a future user to interact and navigate the world via high powered mobile devices populated with rich photographic representations of the environment.
Energy Storage
Virtually every device will require better power storage. All mobile electronic handsets use batteries and everything from a power tool to an electric vehicle to a solar panel will benefit from a more powerful, reliable, and cheaper energy storage source.
Right now, for example, there is an unsubsidized cost premium of several thousand dollars between an EV or hybrid and a comparable fossil fuel vehicle. Depending on the actual technology, much of this cost premium is devoted to batteries. Firms like A123 Systems have been applying proprietary nanotechnology to produce such batteries for companies like power tool manufacturer Black and Decker and General Motors’ Chevy Volt electric vehicle. Tesla’s roadster doesn’t presently employ the A123 battery but they, too are in search of considerably cheaper, more powerful energy storage, which will be the black swan for the transportation industry.
More Mashups
Named originally after the sampling and DJ phenomena in the music world, mashups are eclectic and sometimes arbitrary seeming assemblages of data delivered to one place, such as a website or other user interface. More and more online experience derives from such multiple media feeds. The days of static web pages served by one source are about over. People want to read news, scan video and audio; they want to read blogs and chat with friends, all from the same interface. Drupal www.drupal.org is an open source framework for content management that facilitates this. Disparate organizations such as Harvard and Sony use Drupal to organize and deliver their web content.
Social Networks
I’m probably too old to appreciate the full impact of online social networking but it’s exploded, and not just through Facebook and MySpace and their slightly more grown up cousin LinkedIn . More and more organizations, including political campaigns, employ social networks. Almost any initiative, project, or venture can benefit from a collaborative online network. Ning makes it possible to set up your own private or public social network with a few clicks – and for free.
Trends to Follow
With the black swan and Wall Street in mind, who can predict what technologies or events are going to be game changers? Therefore, short of prognostications, what developments might interest many of this newsletter’s readers in design professions.
Takeaways from the Emtech 08 conference:
- Try to join the global market. Consider partnerships or other ways to reach clients and customers in rapidly growing Asian markets particularly.
- Take advantage of the growth of mobile technologies and social networking from the standpoints of your own marketing efforts and in terms of the services and/or products you offer.
- If you’re an architect or designer, think about how users are changing their interactions with each other and with the physical environment using mobile devices and social networks.
- If you’re an interactive designer make your client’s websites handset browser friendly and build more social interactivity into them.
- If you’re engineering electric vehicles, buildings or artifacts make sure their systems interact with handheld devices for control and accounting purposes such as tracking carbon credits.
Finally, as a designer get comfortable with mashups. Think about creating frameworks, not just inviolate layouts. In the physical world, mashups suggest matrices for plugin components, such as impromptu work spaces of different sorts. In the information world mashups need platforms, desirably open source, allowing for various feeds of disparate media and many voices
November 8th, 2008 | Category: Uncategorized, blog, news | Leave a comment