E2C2 LLC

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energy / environment strategies

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solar: the novel

How often do novels portray middle aged scientists and technologists? Moreover, those in the thrall of  solar energy? Just finished Ian McEwan’s novel, Solar. Michael Beard, the protagonist, is a Nobel winning physicist with a messy personal life and is on the downside of his career.  McEwan paints a comic portrait of a formerly brilliant, still self absorbed, immature and not very honest man, facing old age. The story delivers pot shots at political correctness in academe and  the bureaucratic finagling endemic in the government grants game. In what other work of fiction would NREL (the National Renewable Energy Lab) be featured? Not a great novel, but entertaining for its insights on the climate/renewables issue and the compulsions of middle age.

size matters

A trip yesterday to the Washington International Auto Show got me to thinking about size. In the case of cars, as with housing, green doesn’t only mean new technologies, it also means smaller. From yesterday’s product scan at the show, Ford appears to be the only American manufacturer with an exciting small car in its portfolio. The Fiesta, due on showroom floors this spring, is stylish, well put together, good handling and peppy. It promises about 40 mpg with a high efficiency gas engine – no hybrid technology required. A turbocharged version, due a bit later, will offer even better performance with little or no mileage penalty.  General Motors doesn’t have much to counter the Fiesta; its Chevy Aveo looks down market and the Fiat/Chrysler 500, which is very cute but tiny, won’t be on sale for a couple of years. Ford’s main competition in the small, quality – but – not – luxury car segment will be Japan and VW.

 

 

This brings up the absurd situation in the American auto market with respect to vehicle size and efficiency.  Conventional marketing wisdom asserts that Americans need big cars because it’s a big country.  And, because big cars weigh more, they need bigger and more fuel thirsty engines.  There’s also the mythical, aspirational aspect of this argument: that Americans demand big, powerful, cars; because – well, they can. However, it’s long been known that the average vehicle trip in America is about 7 miles and that vehicle occupancy is generally not much more than one; the driver.  This suggests a car something less massive than a crew cab pickup or a 8 passenger SUV.  

In round numbers, the large truck/SUV gets about 20 mpg or less while the aforementioned Fiesta gets about 40 mpg, or twice the mileage without resorting to any hybrid or electric technology.  The automakers, American ones especially, have asserted that the public wants big cars and they are simply meeting that demand. However, large vehicles are also more profitable than small ones, providing the manufacturers incentives to sell them.  Speaking of large vehicles the truck and large SUV areas at the auto show were dead zones – opposed to 2 or 3 years ago.

In the “have your cake and eat it too” vein, manufacturers have countered the large vehicle efficiency downside by producing high performance cars with somewhat better fuel economy achieved by advanced technology. Examples are Lexus hybrids and Mercedes Blue Tec diesel models. But, as impressive as the performance and technology of these vehicles are they still beg the question about going to all this trouble when smaller, simpler vehicles will deliver approximately the same performance, get better mileage and cost a lot less? The motivation is manufacturers believe there is still a strong market for big luxury vehicles which improve the bottom line.

However, recent marketing research by McKinsey has suggested that Americans have not only changed their behavior with respect to expensive goods out of economic necessity; they are actually satisfied with lower priced, less premium offerings and unlikely to revert to previous behavior. In the case of automobiles, I hope this means a lot more cars like the Fiesta. Having said this, hybrid and electric vehicle technologies are necessary and inevitable, but in the meantime large energy savings are available by simply going a little smaller.

having our coke & drinking it too; carbon capture & sequestration

Virtually everybody reading this knows that coal is bad environmentally. It’s the dirtiest of the fossil fuels in terms of carbon emissions and historically the primary cause of acid rain, not to mention negative land and water impacts where it’s mined. But coal is also plentiful, domestically produced, and as a result, cheap. We rely on it to generate more than half of the electric power in the US, including the energy operating the computer on which I’m writing this blog. However, the sad but increasingly unavoidable fact is that as a power source, coal is probably here to stay for some time.

 

Coal will remain with us because there is simply too much global demand for electrical power to fill the gap with renewable sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear options, even assuming massive scale ups in all of these technologies. Not only the US, but China and India and other countries also rely on coal for power, with the expectation of even more use of it. According to the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), globally, coal fired plants now under construction or planned during the next 20 year will, during their operational lifetimes, emit more atmospheric carbon than all the coal combusted to date.

 

Intriguing as coal free – alternative energy scenarios, like Ed Mazria’s solar and conservation based, 2030 Challenge are, we simply have to find a way to burn coal more cleanly to make a dent in global warming. Such clean coal processes generally fall under the rubric of Carbon Capture and Sequestration, or CSS.  In one form or another, this is a multi step process requiring: a) removal of CO2 before – or – after coal combustion, b) compression of it into a liquid, c) piping it to a safe place, where d) it can be injected/sequestered permanently, generally underground. This storage place might be an oil field, a deep saline aquifer, or in some scenarios, in the ocean depths.

 

CSS is not a simple process, but neither are the alternatives. Society ran out of simple, cheap energy solutions some time ago. Rather, we exploited seemingly cheap energy solutions without regard to their actual environmental costs. Respected environmental organizations such as the NRDC support the role of CCS in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change. Stanford’s Global Climate and Energy Project among other educational institutions, is actively developing CCS technologies.

 

In the past, there have been arguments that CCS is some sort of smoke and mirrors scheme invented by the power industry to maintain business as usual. While there may be truth to such wishful thinking by some in the power industry hoping for a silver bullet, others are moving ahead with sizeable CCS utility pilot projects; among them Southern Company.

 

One thing that CCS won’t be is cheap. In all likelihood it will drive up the cost of coal fired power considerably. The good news is that this makes other renewable sources such and solar and wind technologies more price competitive. But if past experience with scrubbers on power plants is any indicator, costs should come down as R & D drives innovation and scale up creates efficiencies. However, any way you look at it, renewable, fossil, or nuclear, power is going to cost a lot more more in the future, making energy efficiency and conservation all the more important.

 

A final note on terminology. Excuse the somewhat inaccurate reference to “coke” in the title above.  The coal coking process and coal combustion to produce power are not the same, but I couldn’t resist the pun.

getting designers to think entrepreneurially

One of my interests in attending the Green Technology Academy this week has been to learn to think more like an entrepreneur. Most designers, myself included, are pretty good – to excellent – at coming up with interesting ideas. However, the other aspect of entrepreneurship besides creativity is turning those ideas into action. I’m trying to learn more about that side of the equation, not only for myself, but to be better informed when I teach design to others. Not all designers will want to become entrepreneurs themselves but in all likelihood they will work with, or for, entrepreneurs sometime during their careers. They should know how entrepreneurs think, and how they can better contribute to the innovation process. The creative idea is likely just the “end of the beginning” of the innovation process, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, and designers must learn how to participate throughout all stages of development.

elevator pitches and greentech speed dating

Biofuels, better fuel cell membranes, energy saving Internet routers, these are among the 30 plus ideas that researchers are try to turn into potential business propositions at the Green Tech Entrepreneurship Academy (GTEA). As graduate students and university faculty are learning at this intensive 5 day course in entrepreneurship designed and run by the University of California at Davis School of Management, it takes much, much more than a great idea to make a business. Day two of the GTEA had participants crafting 30 second “elevator” pitches to describe their concepts to would be investors. A crash course in seeking and securing venture capital followed. Key to all entrepreneurial activities are extensive contacts with prospective customers, backers and collaborators. A highlight of the day featured one researcher, presently working on energy saving router software, speaking live with a potential customer from Cisco. Later in the evening every would be entrepreneur got the opportunity to fine tune their pitch in a “speed dating” session with a group of angel investors. This exercise provided an amazing amount of feedback in a short period – and potential investment contacts. Needless to say, it was a very full day.

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networks and green entrepreneurship

Creativity plus Entrepreneurship equals Innovation. So says Prof. Andrew Hargadon of UC Davis School of Management, here at the Greentech Entrepreneurship Academy meeting at Sierra Nevada College on Lake Tahoe. Many have great ideas and some have the entrepreneurial drive, but to make things happen you have to possess both qualities, plus have a great network to support your work. A network may be both part of your product and your support and delivery infrastructure. Mostly, however, it’s access to people with knowledge and other resources. Build a good network and your likelihood of success is much greater for your great green idea.

green entrepreneurship

I’m here at Sierra Nevada College, on Lake Tahoe, to learn about green entrepreneurship, courtesy the University of California at Davis’ School of Management. About 40 of us, grad students, post docs, academics and professionals, will participate in 5 days of lectures, seminars and workshops about turning green tech ideas into viable businesses. I will be posting every day.

opening the economy/environment conversation

I’ve been thinking a lot about the economy/environment challenge and have produced this video Talking about the green economy on You Tube.

a slower road to the green economy than we hope?

Even with signs that the economy has bottomed out, slow job recovery looks likely. Given recent events employers will be cautious about rehiring, preferring to keep present staff levels and seeking instead to increase worker productivity. In theory the prospect of a transformative green economy promises a lot for an otherwise gloomy employment picture. Prospects include plenty of jobs at all skill levels: from highly trained engineers, materials scientists and IT experts working on electric vehicles, building a smart grid and solar technologies, to less skilled manufacturing and installation workers implementing renewable energy and energy efficiency systems for millions of American homes and businesses.

 

As with most economic transformations however, this one is not going to be as fast or smooth as we might hope. Most of the goods and services comprising the green economy aren’t things people rush out to buy the first time they start feeling more financially confident. Many of the green economy’s products are infrastructure related or big ticket items like housing and automobiles; purchases that will probably be postponed longer than in the recent past.

 

We have to start building the green economy now. But it will not happen overnight. We are an impatient society; this is one of our strengths. Who can blame someone who needs a job or whose mortgage is in jeopardy for wanting to see rapid economic improvement? But the following vignettes, as promising as they are in most respects, suggest that the trip to the green Promised Land may take longer than we wish:  

 

  • The recession is bringing substantial consolidations to the solar industry, which has invested heavily in production facilities during the past several years and now faces weaker demand. This over – capacity is good news for some solar project developers and consumers since solar panel prices should fall further, but bad news for the solar manufacturing industry and its employment outlook.
  • Even with lower prices for solar and public subsidies, many home and business owners will remain wary of assuming additional debt for solar and energy efficiency projects, except in states such as California where substantial subsidies and highly attractive paybacks are available.
  • The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act features a host of green initiatives. www.recovery.gov.  Among them, the Act includes the high performance Green Buildings Fund, which targets $5.5 billion to bring Federal buildings up to green specifications.  But, projects in this green portfolio may take up to 2 years to bid out and several more to construct, so the jobs bounce won’t be immediate. The Department of Energy has also recently announced almost $500 million in support of geothermal and solar energy projects and R & D , which is welcome, but not an overnight jobs program.
  • Development of a Smart Grid will proceed because it makes operational sense. But there is controversy about its implementation. Will this be a top down affair, driven by the utilities or a bottom up approach spearheaded by individual producers/consumers such as homeowners and small businesses equipped with renewable power technologies? . In all likelihood utilities will play a major role but it seems unlikely they will be able to monopolize the system, keeping smaller distributed power producers off the network. At any rate, the Smart Grid will be a work in progress for decades, particularly as millions of grid points are added.
  • When the green jobs materialize people will need the skills to carry them out. Delivering training will take time. The good news is that training and education programs can begin quickly. Once they are trained however, people will need to be located where the jobs are found. For example, folks in Michigan, with a nation leading unemployment rate of about 15% may not be best positioned for solar manufacturing and installation jobs, which are more likely to be found in the Southwest. .
  • With new housing construction still quite moribund, at less than half of what it was last year at this time http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf a huge market for renewable and energy efficiency products and services remains depressed. Until housing recovers the focus will necessarily be on retrofitting existing homes and buildings – a good thing, but sometimes harder to implement than incorporating green technologies in new construction.
  • While electric vehicles may ultimately provide a substantial answer to global clean transportation needs the automotive product development cycle is often 5-7 years for a new model, especially one that incorporates new technology. We shouldn’t hold our breath as the industry retools for green cars. Even the poster car for the restructured General Motors, the plug in hybrid Chevy Volt, has been the subject of delay rumors as GM grapples with developing a strategy to achieve profitability as soon as possible.   Conventional, high mileage vehicles manufactured overseas and sporty cars like the Camaro may figure in GM’s short term recovery strategy more prominently than the Volt, which will likely be a money loser at first.
  • On a positive note Recovery Act monies allocated to weatherization of lower income Americans’ homes may begin to produce employment and energy results quite quickly

Products and techniques for weatherization are well established and training and installation programs quite simple so this may have short term positive impact on jobs.

Finally, we are pleased to note an explosion in the demand for domestic chickens as pets and food sources. Yes, chickens are green, clucking around suburban back yards providing eggs, manure and perhaps the occasional McNugget. We don’t know how much employment has been created but hatcheries have been unable to keep up with demand.

learning from Las Vegas and sensor city; promise or peril

 

 

The Strip from the Bellagio

Deconstruction in the Desert

In 1972 architect Robert Venturi and colleagues published a monograph titled Learning from Las Vegas. This controversial and influential manifesto celebrated the Strip’s garish signs and over – the – top architecture.
 
Venturi et al named the Vegas casino style the “decorated shed,” meaning essentially a simple structure with elaborate ornament. They went on to make a sophisticated argument on behalf of this design approach in opposition to the modern architectural style that prevailed at the time. Less skillful architectural practitioners then took Venturi’s precepts as a call to post modern excess and created a whole generation of buildings adorned with cartoonish references to classical structures.
 
Today, what we learn from Las Vegas is not the value of ornament. Rather, much like the present national economy, LV is a great example of what happens when the market operates generally unfettered by regulation. For a while Vegas had cheap, plentiful housing, lots of jobs, and low taxes. Tourists flocked to the ever – growing outlandishness of the Strip. The whole business sprawled across the Mojave with subdivisions bumping against surrounding mountains. The place went from 200,000 to 1.8 million residents in about 30 years.
 
Vegas was among the first cities to feel the housing bust, beginning in 2006. This was fueled by too much easy credit, speculation and overbuilding. Then, a slowing national economy put the bite on the tourism. Tourist bookings are down more than 10% this year and the all important gambling take is off by significantly more. Several casinos are considering bankruptcy.
 
At this point, one wonders now how long it will take to sell all those empty subdivisions and condos, and to restock the gambling venues.  The fundamental ecological question also remains unanswered; how long will the water will hold out?  There’s been a 12 year of drought in this parched region. It takes more than solar energy and jobs to make a place livable. On the positive side everyone seems aware of the precious water resource and the hotels are serious about water and energy conservation; except for the elaborate public fountain displays that epitomize Vegas excess. One bright spot for sustainability is the Springs Preserve, a 180 acre former water treatment site now turned into a desert preserve, ecological living center and museum complex, located just a couple of miles from the Strip.
 
What’s the lesson from Las Vegas? Now that the music has stopped a lot of people have been left in the desert without much to do, not to mention water. The fundamental drawbacks of living in a harsh environment, dependent on a single industry have become apparent. On a recent trip, I overheard one visitor remarking that an enterprising tour operator was offering foreclosure bus tours. I can picture it; Tuesday the Grand Canyon and Wednesday Canyon Crater Estates. That gives new meaning to the term Ecotourism; which now it translates to Ecological and Economic Tourism.
 
Sensor City; Promise or Peril


 
Want to quantify the temperature, color, weight, pressure, presence or absence of something, if there is electrical current flowing, whether a substance is wet or dry, if it contains a particular chemical, and accomplish this without actual hands on measurement? This is what sensors do, and they’re getting smaller cheaper and more ubiquitous. They can be embedded in everything from cars to bridges, agricultural fields, to household objects. They may also someday be inserted in us and our food. Imagine a whole world of these things communicating remotely from wherever they are and linked in networks. This all sounds pretty geeky but the implications are both exciting, and potentially scary.
 
I’ve already written about the Smart Grid and how in the not too far future a series of devices, from home appliances and equipment at the consumer end, to a combination of conventional and renewable solar and wind energy sources at the production source, will be linked together. The Smart Grid, relying heavily on sensors, will match power supply and demand, potentially saving vast amounts of energy and money.
 
Commercial building automation systems, using a network of sensors throughout a structure, monitor not only temperature and humidity but also lighting levels, carbon dioxide and other substances, to maintain healthy air quality levels and a comfortable, productive environment. Public spaces can also be protected from chemical and explosive threats with the introduction of sensors.
 
Soon some supermarkets will employ shelving and freezer compartment systems equipped with sensors to alert managers and distributors when a particular stock item is low so that it can be automatically reordered and delivered. Light sensing eyeglasses have been around for years but advanced versions of this technology can be applied to windows and building cladding materials so that transparency can be modified to respond to changing weather and or privacy needs.
 
Roadways can sense traffic flows and adjust lane usage accordingly. Bridges can report on wear and alert engineers for maintenance, avoiding dangerous failures. Farmers will use inexpensive sensors in fields to assess water and fertilizer needs for precision farming, not wasting precious resources and the energy needed to deliver it.
 
Researchers are working on tiny sensors embedded in our bodies that report on the status of various systems and organs, providing early warning of problems and hopefully facilitating repairs. Some people already have tiny chips implanted in their pets to identify them in the event of loss or theft. These aren’t sensors but they suggest a pathway for the future, as nanotechnology delivers more easily implantable devices.
 
The rosy scenario for sensors sketches a world of intelligent objects communicating to optimize energy use, maintain vital infrastructure and monitor the health and welfare of humans, organisms and the communities in which we live. Sensors will be one of the building blocks of the Green Economy.
 
A darker picture is one of intrusive devices observing and reporting on our every activity with a concomitant loss of privacy and freedom. When and if we cross the threshold by allowing sensors within our bodies the mind begins to boggle at the consequences. However, most of us already carry around a piece of gateway personal sensing technology. Depending on the model, and the permission we assign to them, our cell phones can identify our whereabouts with considerable accuracy. Not surprisingly, the ACLU is concerned about the looming privacy and liberty issues surrounding these expanding sensor and communication technologies. Who knows where this issue leads?  

 

 

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mission

We develop and market energy efficiency strategies and technologies. We focus on the building and transportation sectors, which account for more than two thirds of the energy budget.

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