Dystopians, Techno Boosters, and BTW Green Economy
It’s March, the economy’s terrible, the short term outlook is sobering and the longer term is highly uncertain. Obama’s honeymoon lasted about 20 minutes. Some Democratic pundits assert he hasn’t done enough to attack the ailing economy despite passing a huge stimulus package. On the other hand, Republicans lament the onslaught of socialism. Markets remain depressed and nervous, and the full scope of the bank and auto messes hasn’t been addressed. Scary prospects, like bankruptcies for GM and Chrysler and some sort of nationalization for Citibank and Bank of America, loom.
Dance of the Dystopians
Where should you turn for advice or insight? If you’re tired of stiff – upper – lip, coping – with – the – crisis articles, how about indulging in some genuine pessimism instead? Profiled in a recent New Yorker piece (available online by subscription) are James Howard Kunstler, Dmitry Orlov, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb; three prophets of the current meltdown and fellow dystopians. If you thought Rush Limbaugh was the only commentator seeing a silver lining in a failed stimulus plan, think again.
Kunstler correctly called the financial mess. But he’s also been railing at the economy and culture for years. Particular targets have been suburban sprawl: subdivisions, malls and the consumption that accompanies them. He sees an opportunity in the current meltdown for a more localized economy that will somehow also herald a return to good taste in architecture and town planning.
Orlov and Taleb come by their dark visions more autobiographically. Orlov spent his first 12 years in the Soviet Union. After moving to the America, he followed the ensuing economic chaos in Russia and former Soviet States. Taleb, a Lebanese Christian and former options trader, grew up in Beirut and lived through that country’s years of civil war.
Orlov is the more practical dystopian, offering quite cheerful advice on coping with a collapsed society, based on his experience from the Russia. Taleb, on the other hand, doesn’t appear to relish collapse as much as Kunstler or Orlov, but asserts economic disaster will remain a threat unless we take into account the likelihood of unexpected and oftentimes disastrous developments. He calls these events, Black Swans, which are far more likely to occur than we anticipate, and wants to Black Swan – proof capitalism.
Techno Boosters Still Ascendant?
I may be in denial, but somehow I like the more entrepreneurial, techno – optimistic cosmopolitan, boosterish visions of the future promoted by Fast Company, Wired and MIT’s Technology Review, rather than the dark pictures sketched by the dystopians. Having said this, some techno visionaries like Ray Kurzweil and his expectation of the Singularity are almost as unsettling as the dystopians.
What About Green Amidst the Chaos?
Now, for the ostensible subject of this post. Where are green building and sustainable enterprise left in these uncommon circumstances? Are they afterthoughts in an economy where businesses and consumers are concerned primarily with survival? I think not.
Bad economy or not, some of the framework for a greener future is in place, with more underpinnings sustainability on the way. Many major municipalities and states already have green building regulations in place. For the time being, some public agencies’ ability to build will be limited by the lack of cash. However, the President’s and Congress’ stimulus bill, called the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, contains several sizeable green initiatives. Any significant building projects fueled by the stimulus package include will be green. At least $4.5 billion is allocated to the U.S. General Services Administration to convert GSA facilities to “High-Performance Green buildings”, making federal buildings more energy efficient.
Furthermore $4 million in funds were set aside for the establishment of the Office of Federal High Performance Green Buildings within the GSA, which office was created by the 2007 Act. One caveat before celebrating; what’s green when it comes to the stimulus funded transportation projects is debatable. For example a planned bridge project here in Washington, DC is already subject of debate because the design allegedly increases traffic capacity through a residential area.
The Recovery Act also contains money to begin building a smart grid that incorporates more agile power supply and demand management particularly integrating renewable wind and solar power more effectively into the national electricity system. The stimulus also extends energy efficient weatherization programs and state grant programs to improve energy efficiency.
The promise of Green Collar jobs remains just that for now. Van Jones, formerly of the not for profit Apollo Alliance, a major promoter of the Green Economy, has taken a job in the White House under the Council for Environmental Quality as its primary advocate for a green economy and green jobs.
Green and Red Ink?
Greenbiz.com has just published its annual edition of the State of the Green Economy report. Major companies appear not to have abandoned their green campaigns and in fact they see them as consistent with the current economic situation. See Chevron, Weyerhaeuser, Waste Management, to name 3 prominent ones, feature environmental and energy responsibility prominently. Green, particularly, energy efficiency, is apparently congruent with economic recovery in the corporate lexicon. It remains to be seen how corporate communications will be translated into action during straightened economic circumstances.
On the consumer side, according to Joel Makower, of Green Biz, consumer polls still indicate commitment to green products but these assertions, like corporate PR may have more to do with atmospherics than with the allocation of dollars.
Dance of the Dystopians
Where should you turn for advice or insight? If you’re tired of stiff – upper – lip, coping – with – the – crisis articles, how about indulging in some genuine pessimism instead? Profiled in a recent New Yorker piece (available online by subscription) are James Howard Kunstler, Dmitry Orlov, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb; three prophets of the current meltdown and fellow dystopians. If you thought Rush Limbaugh was the only commentator seeing a silver lining in a failed stimulus plan, think again.
Kunstler correctly called the financial mess. But he’s also been railing at the economy and culture for years. Particular targets have been suburban sprawl: subdivisions, malls and the consumption that accompanies them. He sees an opportunity in the current meltdown for a more localized economy that will somehow also herald a return to good taste in architecture and town planning.
Orlov and Taleb come by their dark visions more autobiographically. Orlov spent his first 12 years in the Soviet Union. After moving to the America, he followed the ensuing economic chaos in Russia and former Soviet States. Taleb, a Lebanese Christian and former options trader, grew up in Beirut and lived through that country’s years of civil war.
Orlov is the more practical dystopian, offering quite cheerful advice on coping with a collapsed society, based on his experience from the Russia. Taleb, on the other hand, doesn’t appear to relish collapse as much as Kunstler or Orlov, but asserts economic disaster will remain a threat unless we take into account the likelihood of unexpected and oftentimes disastrous developments. He calls these events, Black Swans, which are far more likely to occur than we anticipate, and wants to Black Swan – proof capitalism.
Techno Boosters Still Ascendant?
I may be in denial, but somehow I like the more entrepreneurial, techno – optimistic cosmopolitan, boosterish visions of the future promoted by Fast Company, Wired and MIT’s Technology Review, rather than the dark pictures sketched by the dystopians. Having said this, some techno visionaries like Ray Kurzweil and his expectation of the Singularity are almost as unsettling as the dystopians.
What About Green Amidst the Chaos?
Now, for the ostensible subject of this post. Where are green building and sustainable enterprise left in these uncommon circumstances? Are they afterthoughts in an economy where businesses and consumers are concerned primarily with survival? I think not.
Bad economy or not, some of the framework for a greener future is in place, with more underpinnings sustainability on the way. Many major municipalities and states already have green building regulations in place. For the time being, some public agencies’ ability to build will be limited by the lack of cash. However, the President’s and Congress’ stimulus bill, called the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, contains several sizeable green initiatives. Any significant building projects fueled by the stimulus package include will be green. At least $4.5 billion is allocated to the U.S. General Services Administration to convert GSA facilities to “High-Performance Green buildings”, making federal buildings more energy efficient.
Furthermore $4 million in funds were set aside for the establishment of the Office of Federal High Performance Green Buildings within the GSA, which office was created by the 2007 Act. One caveat before celebrating; what’s green when it comes to the stimulus funded transportation projects is debatable. For example a planned bridge project here in Washington, DC is already subject of debate because the design allegedly increases traffic capacity through a residential area.
The Recovery Act also contains money to begin building a smart grid that incorporates more agile power supply and demand management particularly integrating renewable wind and solar power more effectively into the national electricity system. The stimulus also extends energy efficient weatherization programs and state grant programs to improve energy efficiency.
The promise of Green Collar jobs remains just that for now. Van Jones, formerly of the not for profit Apollo Alliance, a major promoter of the Green Economy, has taken a job in the White House under the Council for Environmental Quality as its primary advocate for a green economy and green jobs.
Green and Red Ink?
Greenbiz.com has just published its annual edition of the State of the Green Economy report. Major companies appear not to have abandoned their green campaigns and in fact they see them as consistent with the current economic situation. See Chevron, Weyerhaeuser, Waste Management, to name 3 prominent ones, feature environmental and energy responsibility prominently. Green, particularly, energy efficiency, is apparently congruent with economic recovery in the corporate lexicon. It remains to be seen how corporate communications will be translated into action during straightened economic circumstances.
On the consumer side, according to Joel Makower, of Green Biz, consumer polls still indicate commitment to green products but these assertions, like corporate PR may have more to do with atmospherics than with the allocation of dollars.
While this is undoubtedly a very distressing time for many Americans and others around the world, it’s also a time of great opportunities for those with vision and resources to move ahead with sustainable initiatives
